Severe Weather Forecast - Chase Update - March 07, 2016

Good morning!

Today marks the first chase day of the year with a chance of tornadoes in the southern plains.
As with most early season severe weather patterns they can tend to be pretty disorganized / messy. Lets take a look at what we are dealing with today. I will be discussing mainly the Oklahoma and Texas regions.


SPC current day 1 outlook graphic.

Since the over all pattern is not very organized there are several elements that complicates the forecast. 1. Extensive cloud cover over the region inhibiting a more substantial severe threat. 2. Lack of appreciable surface convergence along the DL and late arrival of main push. 3. Narrow instability axis.   The dryline will set up from Central Texas into Western Oklahoma, surface dew points ahead of the DL will vary from lower to mid 60's and a strong 50kt low level jet ahead of the DL. The amount of instability is questionable due to cloud cover and misty conditions.


Morning Sounding from KFWD ( Fort Worth ) shows pretty impressive low level shear and SW flow already set in place at 500mb. Providing the turning with height needed for storm rotation. Instability is weak in this sounding and the sun will need to come out for the instability to rise for  higher severe thunderstorm potential. Wind fields will strengthen throughout the day as a surface low over eastern Nebraska deepens and the powerful wave moves closer to the region.

This mornings model guidance is consistent with not developing storms on the dry line until well after dark. There has been decent consistency with storms developing in the open warm sector along the western fringe of the strong LLJ axis and eastern edge of the instability axis. The likely hood of this happening is high. This should take place between Highways 281 and I35 from just south of I20 north into Southern Oklahoma. These storms would need to tap into the boundary layer in order to have a more substantial severe weather and tornado threat.  But again, this is conditional of the availability of cloud breaks for the needed surface heating. If the sun can come out and get the CAPE up and storms stay isolated there is plenty of shear for them to spin and the tornado potential will increase greatly for an isolated tornado or 2. 

Here is the HRRR simulated radar model output for 0z ( 6pm) later today. I believe these storm will fire close to the I20 corridor between 3pm and 5pm.

Below is my target area as of right now. I plan on heading out this area up 281 and analyze trends and make adjustments as necessary. Right on the western fringe of the strongest LLJ max and eastern edge of greater instability, of course if the instability can get up there. 

So with all that said, lets get out hands dirty and enjoy some time on the road! Not expecting much but sometimes mother nature can throw surprises!

On Call Storm Chasing Tours

We are offering day tours for the 2016 storm season! This is a great opportunity for anybody who wants to experience the thrill of chasing without taking a week off work or are pressed for time. It is easy to sign up and no cost to get on the waiting list. 

We offer our day tours outside of our scheduled tours. If we don't have a 7 day tour booked during a particular period or anytime the conditions are favorable for tornadoes and supercells day tours will be available!

How it works! Once you are on the sign up sheet and a great chase day looks promising in our forecast we will call you within 48 of the potential chase. You let us know if you are on our not! If you are a go a payment will be due before the chase begins. If for some reason we have any doubts about a potential day we will call off the chase and fully refund your payment. 

The meeting place of our day tours depends on where our target area is for the days chase.  This will be discussed with you before the tour begins. You are responsible for your travel to the base location. 

To sign up visit our on call storm chasing tour page! We hope to see you in Storm Season 2016!

Storm Chasing Day Tours - On Call Tornado Tours - Click here to sign up or to learn more!

Storm Chasing Tour Season 2016 is coming! Are you ready?

Business is starting to pick up and there is a few thing to do before we start tours! We are super excited about this season with some of the ENSO outlooks showing a possible transition from our strong El Nino into a La Nina later this year. There is no hard solid proof but there has been a trend in some years that there is an increase of severe weather and tornadoes during this type of transitional phase. So something to keep our finger crossed for and hope that if there is an increase that the weather behaves and stays over open terrain where we can enjoy them.

We currently have a great special right now that runs until the end of February. The New Years Resolution discount. All storm chasing tours are now $250.00! You can view this here current special for a more affordable storm chasing tour.

We also have included on call storm chasing day tours to our offerings. This is a great opportunity for folks who don't have the time for a week long tour. It is free to sign up for on-call storm chasing day tours. Once you are on the waiting list and we are forecasting a promising severe weather event with high tornado potential we will contact you to see if you are on board. If it is a go for you we will collect payment and hold your seat on the van. If for some reason we lose confidence in the forecasted event we will contact you to let you know that it is no longer a "go" and we will promptly refund your money. On-call storm chasing is $325.00 per person.

I will have another post here shortly. The new van is about to get fully rigged and it is going to be SWEET! I am confident we will have one of the best storm chasing tour vans in the industry packed with useful technology!

Please feel free to follow us on twitter, Facebook, Youtube, and Instagram

Storm Chasing Tours 2016 Holiday Price Special!

Hey everyone!

Just a little update on our tour pricing the remainder of 2015. We are running an awesome special for $350.00 off on all of our 2016 storm chasing tours! This is a great opportunity for an affordable storm chasing tour package! Tours will book quickly during this time so do not miss out. Normal price for tours is $2800 for individuals and $2650 for friends and family sharing a room together. New pricing is $2300 for room share and $2450 for individual. The special runs until December 31, 2015.
To book or for more info Storm Chasing Tours 2016

Tornadic Expeditions

WOW!
What a ride the last year has been. I have not wrote in my blog in so long! I lost my hotmail email and was not able to log in, but after some hard work I was able to get back in! Anyhow!

I started Tornadic Expeditions Storm Chasing Tours to bring a new life into the storm chasing tour industry.
Do not get me wrong, there are many good companies out there, but I wanted to bring the private tour experience without the private tour price tag. There are many tour companies that run the large passenger vans, and folks maybe riding with others they do not know. I asked myself "If I was gonna go on a tour what kind of experience would I want?". Being an experienced storm chaser I thought to myself, small, private, personal. When I was a new chaser many years ago I was full of questions and was hungry for knowledge and understanding. So what better way than to have that one on one experience. It is much easier for four people to get the attention they deserve than 12 or more. A family of 4 or 5 or group of friends can tour with me and have the entire van to themselves.

Most of us tour operators advertise the same services with our own unique twist. The thing one should consider when selecting a storm chasing vacation is the personality of the people running the tours. Sitting in a van with somebody for a week and they do not talk much or appear uninterested at times would be boring as hell.  Heck no!! We want fun and excitement! I get excited over the smallest needle tornadoes and funnel clouds! Why? Because it is amazing! I have the fortune to chase year after year! The number of hours spent at home vs hours chasing. Storm season is not that long and there are not tornadic storms everyday! That is pure fact! So the time spent on the road chasing is marginal compared to everyday life, so yes I am gonna get excited, I do not get to see it everyday! The bigger picture is nailing a forecast and being there at that moment to observe what you are going after! We do not have control over how big or small the tornadoes are, so appreciate what mother nature gives to us!

That is the beauty of running tours. Taking folks out who have seen very little or nothing at all in the way of supercells and tornadoes, and being there to see their first experience. That is one of the biggest reasons for Tornadic Expeditions, to strive at producing an unmatched experience in a small group setting while educating about the sky above our heads and the power it displays. We are here to cater to your needs, the customer shapes us.

Severe Weather Discussion for 10/21-10/23

Well a very active pattern is getting set in place. Today it impacted parts of New Mexico and extreme West Texas. A couple of tornado warnings were issued today on a New Mexico storm that exhibited brief supercellular structure.

The next several days a Dryline will in be place over west Texas and north into Oklahoma and Extreme southern Kansas. This Dryline will push very slowly east over the next 3 days. Tomorrow we will see severe storms over west Texas. Thursday we shall see some severe weather activity over west Texas. Shear, instability are marginal so hail and gusty winds will be the main threats.

Friday The Dryline will be much tighter. A Negatively tilted trough punching through Texas will create excellent environment for severe weather. The system is much more organized! 30-40kt Low Level Jet. Forecast soundings show a very nice right turned hodograph. Dew points will be mainly in the low to mid 60s. But the biggest concern with Friday is the narrow corridor of instability along the dryline and the amount of available CAPE. This is probably due to cloud cover from the robust low level jet creating a drizzly low stratus deck. If the sun can come out for a few good hours out ahead of that dry line I wouldn't be surprised to see a good storm or 2 come off the dryline and maybe even a tornado or 2. We are for sure keeping an eye on this day for a probable chase. This will be a West Central TX , SW Oklahoma day.

Saturday the Dryline/front takes a more SW to NE orientation and becomes more progressive. We should see more supercells and a more widespread areas for tornadoes on Saturday from North Texas to NE Kansas. Kansas looks very impressive on tonights 0z NAM run. Still have got the nice SW flow in play. Cloud cover and morning convection could put a damper on instability once gain. We need that sun out ahead of the DL/Front.

As far as Friday Saturday go, The shear is quite nice and decent convergence for storms to fire. Thermodynamically it is on the marginal side of the fence. A lot of times it seems the models always under do instability.

Will be posting a much more detailed post tomorrow night. On Fridays Potential.

Long Term Forecast Discussion and News.

The GFS is finally starting to show some trending towards a more active pattern sometime after the 20th of October. With a few troughs moving through the Southern plains. For sure something for us to keep an eye on. There is a set up coming up next week but appears at the moment that shear will be weaker and doesn't appear to be a big supercell/tornado event.

MesoSearch.net would like to Welcome chasers Aaron Dooley , Alec Jones and Seth Hastings to MesoSearch.net.. Their experience, talents and passion are first class. Check their Bios out HERE to learn more about them and other chasers.

Our new Chase Ride!! Say Hello to the WxRV ( Weather Resistant Vehicle)

This is the newest ride for Amanda Seale and I (Erik Burns). I totaled my previous chase ride earlier this spring during one of the largest tornado outbreaks of 2010. I hit a deer while trying to get in position on a large Supercell near Childress TX. That was the last chase for my truck. A good note to end on. It was the silver bullet's last chase.

The new ride is a 2006 Chevy Monte Carlo that's been heavily modified. We were fortunate enough to gain sponsorship from two incredible companies that offer some of the best products on the market in protection and security. Herculiner and Ace Laminates of Texas. Together we are making the WxRV one of the most Severe Weather Resistant vehicles in the world. Featuring an armor coating of Herculiner and Bullet resistant, hail and wind driven debris proof security laminated windows from Ace Security Laminates of Texas. I will make a separate post with more details about the vehicle and an update on where you can take a look at it in person!

Stay Tuned for more updates and news.

Erik.