Home of Storm Chasers Erik and Amanda Burns

Home of Storm Chasers Erik and Amanda Burns
Tornadic Expeditions Storm Chasing Tours

Friday, September 18, 2009

Possible Severe Weather Monday!!!

Well it looks like since the Atlantic hurricane season was owned by El Nino and non existent for the most part it looks like the first ice breaker for the Fall severe weather season may begin on Monday. The models I use to forecast are in fair agreement with a severe episode on Monday. A nice mid level trough will dig it's way into the central and southern plains early Monday then evolve into a closed low. This is also going bring with it a fairly strong and quickly moving cold front. This front will be the focal point of storm development. A very moist and unstable airmass ( Models are presenting and have been confident with CAPE values in the 3,000 J/kg range, that is moderately to very unstable ) will be set in place ahead of this front and mid level trough. Storms should have no problem becoming surface based. Fortunately I don't see much of a tornado threat here. Maybe a brief spin up. Reason being is the strongest winds in the atmosphere will be behind the front. So there will be quite a bit of forcing behind the storms. So at this time more likely a severe wind event. Storms should begin discrete in a linear storm mode and quickly form into a MCS ( MesoScale Convective System). Flash flooding could also be a concern since soils in the area are already saturated from all the previous days of rainfall.

The areas most likely to see this event would be Southern OK , North TX Monday evening into night. And the rest DFW and North East TX and SE OK into AR in late night into early morning hours. So for right now appears to be a mostly a wind and possibly a isolated flash flooding event.