Severe Weather Discussion for 10/21-10/23

Well a very active pattern is getting set in place. Today it impacted parts of New Mexico and extreme West Texas. A couple of tornado warnings were issued today on a New Mexico storm that exhibited brief supercellular structure.

The next several days a Dryline will in be place over west Texas and north into Oklahoma and Extreme southern Kansas. This Dryline will push very slowly east over the next 3 days. Tomorrow we will see severe storms over west Texas. Thursday we shall see some severe weather activity over west Texas. Shear, instability are marginal so hail and gusty winds will be the main threats.

Friday The Dryline will be much tighter. A Negatively tilted trough punching through Texas will create excellent environment for severe weather. The system is much more organized! 30-40kt Low Level Jet. Forecast soundings show a very nice right turned hodograph. Dew points will be mainly in the low to mid 60s. But the biggest concern with Friday is the narrow corridor of instability along the dryline and the amount of available CAPE. This is probably due to cloud cover from the robust low level jet creating a drizzly low stratus deck. If the sun can come out for a few good hours out ahead of that dry line I wouldn't be surprised to see a good storm or 2 come off the dryline and maybe even a tornado or 2. We are for sure keeping an eye on this day for a probable chase. This will be a West Central TX , SW Oklahoma day.

Saturday the Dryline/front takes a more SW to NE orientation and becomes more progressive. We should see more supercells and a more widespread areas for tornadoes on Saturday from North Texas to NE Kansas. Kansas looks very impressive on tonights 0z NAM run. Still have got the nice SW flow in play. Cloud cover and morning convection could put a damper on instability once gain. We need that sun out ahead of the DL/Front.

As far as Friday Saturday go, The shear is quite nice and decent convergence for storms to fire. Thermodynamically it is on the marginal side of the fence. A lot of times it seems the models always under do instability.

Will be posting a much more detailed post tomorrow night. On Fridays Potential.

Long Term Forecast Discussion and News.

The GFS is finally starting to show some trending towards a more active pattern sometime after the 20th of October. With a few troughs moving through the Southern plains. For sure something for us to keep an eye on. There is a set up coming up next week but appears at the moment that shear will be weaker and doesn't appear to be a big supercell/tornado event.

MesoSearch.net would like to Welcome chasers Aaron Dooley , Alec Jones and Seth Hastings to MesoSearch.net.. Their experience, talents and passion are first class. Check their Bios out HERE to learn more about them and other chasers.

Our new Chase Ride!! Say Hello to the WxRV ( Weather Resistant Vehicle)

This is the newest ride for Amanda Seale and I (Erik Burns). I totaled my previous chase ride earlier this spring during one of the largest tornado outbreaks of 2010. I hit a deer while trying to get in position on a large Supercell near Childress TX. That was the last chase for my truck. A good note to end on. It was the silver bullet's last chase.

The new ride is a 2006 Chevy Monte Carlo that's been heavily modified. We were fortunate enough to gain sponsorship from two incredible companies that offer some of the best products on the market in protection and security. Herculiner and Ace Laminates of Texas. Together we are making the WxRV one of the most Severe Weather Resistant vehicles in the world. Featuring an armor coating of Herculiner and Bullet resistant, hail and wind driven debris proof security laminated windows from Ace Security Laminates of Texas. I will make a separate post with more details about the vehicle and an update on where you can take a look at it in person!

Stay Tuned for more updates and news.

Erik.