Severe Weather Discussion for 10/21-10/23

Well a very active pattern is getting set in place. Today it impacted parts of New Mexico and extreme West Texas. A couple of tornado warnings were issued today on a New Mexico storm that exhibited brief supercellular structure.

The next several days a Dryline will in be place over west Texas and north into Oklahoma and Extreme southern Kansas. This Dryline will push very slowly east over the next 3 days. Tomorrow we will see severe storms over west Texas. Thursday we shall see some severe weather activity over west Texas. Shear, instability are marginal so hail and gusty winds will be the main threats.

Friday The Dryline will be much tighter. A Negatively tilted trough punching through Texas will create excellent environment for severe weather. The system is much more organized! 30-40kt Low Level Jet. Forecast soundings show a very nice right turned hodograph. Dew points will be mainly in the low to mid 60s. But the biggest concern with Friday is the narrow corridor of instability along the dryline and the amount of available CAPE. This is probably due to cloud cover from the robust low level jet creating a drizzly low stratus deck. If the sun can come out for a few good hours out ahead of that dry line I wouldn't be surprised to see a good storm or 2 come off the dryline and maybe even a tornado or 2. We are for sure keeping an eye on this day for a probable chase. This will be a West Central TX , SW Oklahoma day.

Saturday the Dryline/front takes a more SW to NE orientation and becomes more progressive. We should see more supercells and a more widespread areas for tornadoes on Saturday from North Texas to NE Kansas. Kansas looks very impressive on tonights 0z NAM run. Still have got the nice SW flow in play. Cloud cover and morning convection could put a damper on instability once gain. We need that sun out ahead of the DL/Front.

As far as Friday Saturday go, The shear is quite nice and decent convergence for storms to fire. Thermodynamically it is on the marginal side of the fence. A lot of times it seems the models always under do instability.

Will be posting a much more detailed post tomorrow night. On Fridays Potential.

Long Term Forecast Discussion and News.

The GFS is finally starting to show some trending towards a more active pattern sometime after the 20th of October. With a few troughs moving through the Southern plains. For sure something for us to keep an eye on. There is a set up coming up next week but appears at the moment that shear will be weaker and doesn't appear to be a big supercell/tornado event.

MesoSearch.net would like to Welcome chasers Aaron Dooley , Alec Jones and Seth Hastings to MesoSearch.net.. Their experience, talents and passion are first class. Check their Bios out HERE to learn more about them and other chasers.

Our new Chase Ride!! Say Hello to the WxRV ( Weather Resistant Vehicle)

This is the newest ride for Amanda Seale and I (Erik Burns). I totaled my previous chase ride earlier this spring during one of the largest tornado outbreaks of 2010. I hit a deer while trying to get in position on a large Supercell near Childress TX. That was the last chase for my truck. A good note to end on. It was the silver bullet's last chase.

The new ride is a 2006 Chevy Monte Carlo that's been heavily modified. We were fortunate enough to gain sponsorship from two incredible companies that offer some of the best products on the market in protection and security. Herculiner and Ace Laminates of Texas. Together we are making the WxRV one of the most Severe Weather Resistant vehicles in the world. Featuring an armor coating of Herculiner and Bullet resistant, hail and wind driven debris proof security laminated windows from Ace Security Laminates of Texas. I will make a separate post with more details about the vehicle and an update on where you can take a look at it in person!

Stay Tuned for more updates and news.

Erik.

More Snow For North Texas?!?! Also.. The Debris Show!

Well to just get things started. I am really sick of winter. The GFS has been showing some run to run consistency with throwing another winter weather event into Texas and OK. It is still 5 days out but damn! I am ready to see some moisture return from the gulf and seeing 2,000 + J/kg on the models! I am sure everybody who reads this is just as anxious as I am. Hopefully these are signs of an amazing season to come. I just wish it would get here faster. It is for sure something to keep an eye on. I really hate snow.

Also I would like to mention Shane Adams web show The Debris Show. If you have not caught it yet it airs every Saturday night at 9pm CDT. So join Shane Adams, Bridget Geauhgan, David Reimer and yours truly Erik Burns as we discuss the happening and not so happening topics in the world of chasing and chaser community. It is sure to be a great time. If you have any questions or comments don't be shy please call in and join the discussion! Check it out @ Http://saturdayaftermath.com .

The Season is a coming!! Are you Ready?

I am 100% prepared. I made alot of upgrades to the chase vehicle this year hoping to make getting information easier, drive in comfort, get the most out of my gear and having it last longer with less wear and tear. Also created the rig so no matter what is going on a camera will always be rolling capturing the action.

Some of the upgrades.


HD Dash cam for streaming and recording
Lap Top Mount
800 watt power inverter
13 powered USB hubs
Toggle switch installed for the light bar
Concealment of wires
New wiring for some of the electronics
New GPS software.
Upgraded GPS tracking





Also just some of the modifications and better organization makes everything so much better to be around all day. The less baby sitting I have to do the better my chase is and the more chasing I get to enjoy.

The MesoSearch.net site is also up. It will be the place where I archive videos and photos as well as ground zero for my live stream, media contact information, facebook and twitter updates. Please visit at http://mesosearch.net/ I will continue to post blogs here since it is easy to do so and is tied right into my site.

I am really hoping for 2010 to be a great chase year. 2009 was slow for tornadoes for me as well as several others. 2 on February 10 , 1 on May 1 and 2 on June 10th. February 10th as we all know was the Day of the Lone Grove EF4. That I saw and reported more then 10 minutes before the town of Lone Grove was struck. Very bitter sweet. I got to Experience the largest tornado of 2009 but yet it takes lives. I did everything I could. I reported it. Everything after that is in Gods Hands.

I hope to chase in states this year I have not yet chased in before. I have been to NM, CO, OK,TX,KS,NE,SD,AR. I would like to venture to IL, IA and maybe IN. Hell if we get another good looking day in WY I will chase it.



I made alot of new friends in 09 and hope to enjoy a chase or 2 with them.


As some of you already know that I am one of the host of the web based show dubbed The Debris Show. You can check it out on Saturday nights at http://saturdayaftermath.com/ Watch as storm chasers Shane Adams, Bridget Geaughen, David Reimer and my self discuss, debate, bitch and rant about the subjects and drama taking place in the world of storm chasing. Not recomended for younger viewers, those with sensitive ears or closed minds!


On the last note I would like to bring up the great service provided by http://chasertv.com/
Their streaming service for chasers is hands down the best available. $40 a year and your set. Scott Bennet and Steve Miller will take care of you. They are good to their words and very professional. So if your interested in streaming this year I promise you will not be dissapointed. Shane Adams uses it, David Drummond, Lanny Dean, Connor McCrorey and your truly. If these names in chasing use it there are no reasons to go anywhere else! ( BTW I am not getting a thing for saying any of this)

Hopefully this blog post didn't bore the hell out of ya. I would like for my next to be a SVR WX forecast. Keeping my fingers crossed. Thank for reading.

Erik